Short rant.

Someday soon, all the people sitting around trying to mashup pictures with video or turn RSS feeds in to ad widgets or link maps to product reviews will come to the realization that everyone is panning for gold in the same river.  The folks at the general store selling the picks (Google) and shovels (Microsoft) and buckets (Facebook) will make a tidy sum while most folks end up with nothing.  It’s already starting to happen some: popular tech blogs are being updated less frequently.  VCs are putting less money in to Web 2.0 companies.  All the work being done in garages around the world is being undone in one stroke as power players like Google and Facebook open their platforms.  The end is nigh.  No, there won’t be a lot of public companies that go under, but there will be a bunch of unemployeed 28 year olds that won’t be able to afford the next version of the iPhone unless they go get a real job.

And once the mining town of Web 2.0 has long packed up and set off for home, there will be theories and books and conferences and discussions and debates about the lessons we should learn from trying to build an economy out of something other then the transaction of goods for cold, hard cash.  Sure, there are all kinds of neat web apps out there.  But they’re all useless until someone shoots the lock off their wallet and starts spending some money.


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